Predicting Retention Curve with MCMC Method

Predicting Retention Curve with MCMC Method

Our aim in this article is to predict this exact curve for a given cohort, in order to estimate how well these users will stick to the app, how many active users we predict to have from this given cohort, and so forth.

Hey Guys,

Today I will go through a recent solution I’ve developed for predicting the retention curve of a given cohort.

Definition

In general, retention is a measurement that estimates how sticky the users you bring to the app. A high retention percent after 7 days, for example, shows that the users your bring to the app stays for a long period of time, and thus give you an indication that they are quality users.

The retention curve looks something like this:

So it starts from a very high place, as we would expect, in the early days of a cohort users tend to stick more. We see the exponential decay that the retention curve has, which also highly characterize the behavior of the users in the app.

Our aim in this article is to predict this exact curve for a given cohort, in order to estimate how well these users will stick to the app, how many active users we predict to have from this given cohort, and so forth.

data-science retention

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