Learn AI Today 04: Time Series Multi-Step Forecasting

This is the 4th story in the Learn AI Todayseries! If you have not already, make sure to check the previous story.

What you will learn in this story:

• Create a chaotic time series
• Split the series in sequences to feed to a model
• Define and train a 1d convolutional neural network for time series forecast
• Using fastai2 Dataset and Learner

#data-science #learn-ai-today #deep-learning #artificial-intelligence

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What is Time Series Forecasting?

In this article, we will be discussing an algorithm that helps us analyze past trends and lets us focus on what is to unfold next so this algorithm is time series forecasting.

What is Time Series Analysis?

In this analysis, you have one variable -TIME. A time series is a set of observations taken at a specified time usually equal in intervals. It is used to predict future value based on previously observed data points.

Here some examples where time series is used.

1. Business forecasting
2. Understand the past behavior
3. Plan future
4. Evaluate current accomplishments.

Components of time series :

1. Trend: Let’s understand by example, let’s say in a new construction area someone open hardware store now while construction is going on people will buy hardware. but after completing construction buyers of hardware will be reduced. So for some times selling goes high and then low its called uptrend and downtrend.
2. **Seasonality: **Every year chocolate sell goes high during the end of the year due to Christmas. This same pattern happens every year while in the trend that is not the case. Seasonality is repeating same pattern at same intervals.
3. Irregularity: It is also called noise. When something unusual happens that affects the regularity, for example, there is a natural disaster once in many years lets say it is flooded so people buying medicine more in that period. This what no one predicted and you don’t know how many numbers of sales going to happen.
4. Cyclic: It is basically repeating up and down movements so this means it can go more than one year so it doesn’t have fix pattern and it can happen any time and it is much harder to predict.

Stationarity of a time series:

A series is said to be “strictly stationary” if the marginal distribution of Y at time t[p(Yt)] is the same as at any other point in time. This implies that the mean, variance, and covariance of the series Yt are time-invariant.

However, a series said to be “weakly stationary” or “covariance stationary” if mean and variance are constant and covariance of two-point Cov(Y1, Y1+k)=Cov(Y2, Y2+k)=const, which depends only on lag k but do not depend on time explicitly.

#machine-learning #time-series-model #machine-learning-ai #time-series-forecasting #time-series-analysis

Learn AI Today 04: Time Series Multi-Step Forecasting

This is the 4th story in the Learn AI Todayseries! If you have not already, make sure to check the previous story.

What you will learn in this story:

• Create a chaotic time series
• Split the series in sequences to feed to a model
• Define and train a 1d convolutional neural network for time series forecast
• Using fastai2 Dataset and Learner

#data-science #learn-ai-today #deep-learning #artificial-intelligence

Find the Best Restaurant Mobile App Development Company in Abu Dhbai

The era of mobile app development has completely changed the scenario for businesses in regions like Abu Dhabi. Restaurants and food delivery businesses are experiencing huge benefits via smart business applications. The invention and development of the food ordering app have helped all-scale businesses reach new customers and boost sales and profit. 

As a result, many business owners are searching for the best restaurant mobile app development company in Abu Dhabi. If you are also searching for the same, this article is helpful for you. It will let you know the step-by-step process to hire the right team of restaurant mobile app developers. 

Step-by-Step Process to Find the Best Restaurant App Development Company

Searching for the top mobile app development company in Abu Dhabi? Don't know the best way to search for professionals? Don't panic! Here is the step-by-step process to hire the best professionals. 

#Step 1 – Know the Company's Culture

Knowing the organization's culture is very crucial before finalizing a food ordering app development company in Abu Dhabi. An organization's personality is shaped by its common beliefs, goals, practices, or company culture. So, digging into the company culture reveals the core beliefs of the organization, its objectives, and its development team. 

Now, you might be wondering, how will you identify the company's culture? Well, you can take reference from the following sources – 

• Social media posts 
• App development process
• About us Page
• Client testimonials

#Step 2 - Refer to Clients' Reviews

Another best way to choose the On-demand app development firm for your restaurant business is to refer to the clients' reviews. Reviews are frequently available on the organization's website with a tag of "Reviews" or "Testimonials." It's important to read the reviews as they will help you determine how happy customers are with the company's app development process. 

You can also assess a company's abilities through reviews and customer testimonials. They can let you know if the mobile app developers create a valuable app or not. 

#Step 3 – Analyze the App Development Process

Regardless of the company's size or scope, adhering to the restaurant delivery app development process will ensure the success of your business application. Knowing the processes an app developer follows in designing and producing a top-notch app will help you know the working process. Organizations follow different app development approaches, so getting well-versed in the process is essential before finalizing any mobile app development company. 

#Step 4 – Consider Previous Experience

Besides considering other factors, considering the previous experience of the developers is a must. You can obtain a broad sense of the developer's capacity to assist you in creating a unique mobile application for a restaurant business.

You can also find out if the developers' have contributed to the creation of other successful applications or not. It will help you know the working capacity of a particular developer or organization. Prior experience is essential to evaluating their work. For instance, whether they haven't previously produced an app similar to yours or not. 

#Step 5 – Check for Their Technical Support

As you expect a working and successful restaurant mobile app for your business, checking on this factor is a must. A well-established organization is nothing without a good technical support team. So, ensure whatever restaurant mobile app development company you choose they must be well-equipped with a team of dedicated developers, designers, and testers. 

Strong tech support from your mobile app developers will help you identify new bugs and fix them bugs on time. All this will ensure the application's success. 

#Step 6 – Analyze Design Standards

Besides focusing on an organization's development, testing, and technical support, you should check the design standards. An appealing design is crucial in attracting new users and keeping the existing ones stick to your services. So, spend some time analyzing the design standards of an organization. Now, you might be wondering, how will you do it? Simple! By looking at the organization's portfolio. 

Whether hiring an iPhone app development company or any other, these steps apply to all. So, don't miss these steps. 

#Step 7 – Know Their Location

Finally, the last yet very crucial factor that will not only help you finalize the right person for your restaurant mobile app development but will also decide the mobile app development cost. So, you have to choose the location of the developers wisely, as it is a crucial factor in defining the cost. 

Summing Up!!!

Restaurant mobile applications have taken the food industry to heights none have ever considered. As a result, the demand for restaurant mobile app development companies has risen greatly, which is why businesses find it difficult to finalize the right person. But, we hope that after referring to this article, it will now be easier to hire dedicated developers under the desired budget. So, begin the hiring process now and get a well-craft food ordering app in hand. 

Flow-Forecast: A time series forecasting library built in PyTorch

Flow Forecast is a recently created open-source framework that aims to make it easy to use state of the art machine learning models to forecast and/or classify complex temporal data. Additionally, flow-forecast natively integrates with Google Cloud Platform, Weights and Biases, Colaboratory, and other tools commonly used in industry.

Background

In some of my previous articles I talked about the need for accurate time series forecasts and the promise of using deep learning. Flow-Forecast was originally, created to forecast stream and river flows using variations of the transformer and baseline models. However, in the process of training the transformers I encountered several issues related to finding the right hyper-parameters and the right architecture. Therefore, it became necessary to develop a platform for trying out many configurations. Flow forecast is designed to allow you to very easily try out a number of different hyper-parameters and training options for your models. Changing a model is as simple as swapping out the model’s name in the configuration file.

Another problem I faced was how to integrate additional static datasets into the forecasts. For river flow forecasting, there was a lot of meta-data such as latitude, longitude, soil depth, elevation, slope, etc. For this, we decided to look into unsupervised methods like autoencoders for forming an embedding. This spurred the idea of creating a generic way to synthesize embedding with the temporal forecast.

Using flow forecast

There are a couple easy resources to use to get started with flow-forecast. I recorded a brief introduction video back in May and there are also more detailed live-coding sessions you can follow. We also have a basic tutorial notebook that you can use to get a sense of how flow-forecast works on a basic problem. Additionally, there are also a lot more detailed notebooks that we use for our core COVID-19 predictions. Finally, we also have ReadTheDocs available for in depth documentation as well as our official wiki pages.

#machine-learning #pytorch #time-series-analysis #time-series-forecasting #deep-learning #deep learning

Matplotlib Cheat Sheet: Plotting in Python

This Matplotlib cheat sheet introduces you to the basics that you need to plot your data with Python and includes code samples.

Data visualization and storytelling with your data are essential skills that every data scientist needs to communicate insights gained from analyses effectively to any audience out there. 

For most beginners, the first package that they use to get in touch with data visualization and storytelling is, naturally, Matplotlib: it is a Python 2D plotting library that enables users to make publication-quality figures. But, what might be even more convincing is the fact that other packages, such as Pandas, intend to build more plotting integration with Matplotlib as time goes on.

However, what might slow down beginners is the fact that this package is pretty extensive. There is so much that you can do with it and it might be hard to still keep a structure when you're learning how to work with Matplotlib.   

DataCamp has created a Matplotlib cheat sheet for those who might already know how to use the package to their advantage to make beautiful plots in Python, but that still want to keep a one-page reference handy. Of course, for those who don't know how to work with Matplotlib, this might be the extra push be convinced and to finally get started with data visualization in Python. 

You'll see that this cheat sheet presents you with the six basic steps that you can go through to make beautiful plots. 

Check out the infographic by clicking on the button below:

With this handy reference, you'll familiarize yourself in no time with the basics of Matplotlib: you'll learn how you can prepare your data, create a new plot, use some basic plotting routines to your advantage, add customizations to your plots, and save, show and close the plots that you make.

What might have looked difficult before will definitely be more clear once you start using this cheat sheet! Use it in combination with the Matplotlib Gallery, the documentation.

Matplotlib 

Matplotlib is a Python 2D plotting library which produces publication-quality figures in a variety of hardcopy formats and interactive environments across platforms.

Prepare the Data 

1D Data 

>>> import numpy as np
>>> x = np.linspace(0, 10, 100)
>>> y = np.cos(x)
>>> z = np.sin(x)

2D Data or Images 

>>> data = 2 * np.random.random((10, 10))
>>> data2 = 3 * np.random.random((10, 10))
>>> Y, X = np.mgrid[-3:3:100j, -3:3:100j]
>>> U = 1 X** 2 + Y
>>> V = 1 + X Y**2
>>> from matplotlib.cbook import get_sample_data
>>> img = np.load(get_sample_data('axes_grid/bivariate_normal.npy'))

Create Plot

>>> import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

Figure 

>>> fig = plt.figure()
>>> fig2 = plt.figure(figsize=plt.figaspect(2.0))

Axes 

>>> fig.add_axes()
>>> ax1 = fig.add_subplot(221) #row-col-num
>>> ax3 = fig.add_subplot(212)
>>> fig3, axes = plt.subplots(nrows=2,ncols=2)
>>> fig4, axes2 = plt.subplots(ncols=3)

Save Plot 

>>> plt.savefig('foo.png') #Save figures
>>> plt.savefig('foo.png',  transparent=True) #Save transparent figures

Show Plot

>>> plt.show()

Plotting Routines 

1D Data 

>>> fig, ax = plt.subplots()
>>> lines = ax.plot(x,y) #Draw points with lines or markers connecting them
>>> ax.scatter(x,y) #Draw unconnected points, scaled or colored
>>> axes[0,0].bar([1,2,3],[3,4,5]) #Plot vertical rectangles (constant width)
>>> axes[1,0].barh([0.5,1,2.5],[0,1,2]) #Plot horiontal rectangles (constant height)
>>> axes[1,1].axhline(0.45) #Draw a horizontal line across axes
>>> axes[0,1].axvline(0.65) #Draw a vertical line across axes
>>> ax.fill(x,y,color='blue') #Draw filled polygons
>>> ax.fill_between(x,y,color='yellow') #Fill between y values and 0

2D Data 

>>> fig, ax = plt.subplots()
>>> im = ax.imshow(img, #Colormapped or RGB arrays
      cmap= 'gist_earth', 
      interpolation= 'nearest',
      vmin=-2,
      vmax=2)
>>> axes2[0].pcolor(data2) #Pseudocolor plot of 2D array
>>> axes2[0].pcolormesh(data) #Pseudocolor plot of 2D array
>>> CS = plt.contour(Y,X,U) #Plot contours
>>> axes2[2].contourf(data1) #Plot filled contours
>>> axes2[2]= ax.clabel(CS) #Label a contour plot

Vector Fields 

>>> axes[0,1].arrow(0,0,0.5,0.5) #Add an arrow to the axes
>>> axes[1,1].quiver(y,z) #Plot a 2D field of arrows
>>> axes[0,1].streamplot(X,Y,U,V) #Plot a 2D field of arrows

Data Distributions 

>>> ax1.hist(y) #Plot a histogram
>>> ax3.boxplot(y) #Make a box and whisker plot
>>> ax3.violinplot(z)  #Make a violin plot

Plot Anatomy & Workflow 

Plot Anatomy 

 y-axis      

                           x-axis 

Workflow 

The basic steps to creating plots with matplotlib are:

1 Prepare Data
2 Create Plot
3 Plot
4 Customized Plot
5 Save Plot
6 Show Plot

>>> import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
>>> x = [1,2,3,4]  #Step 1
>>> y = [10,20,25,30] 
>>> fig = plt.figure() #Step 2
>>> ax = fig.add_subplot(111) #Step 3
>>> ax.plot(x, y, color= 'lightblue', linewidth=3)  #Step 3, 4
>>> ax.scatter([2,4,6],
          [5,15,25],
          color= 'darkgreen',
          marker= '^' )
>>> ax.set_xlim(1, 6.5)
>>> plt.savefig('foo.png' ) #Step 5
>>> plt.show() #Step 6

Close and Clear 

>>> plt.cla()  #Clear an axis
>>> plt.clf(). #Clear the entire figure
>>> plt.close(). #Close a window

Plotting Customize Plot 

Colors, Color Bars & Color Maps 

>>> plt.plot(x, x, x, x**2, x, x** 3)
>>> ax.plot(x, y, alpha = 0.4)
>>> ax.plot(x, y, c= 'k')
>>> fig.colorbar(im, orientation= 'horizontal')
>>> im = ax.imshow(img,
            cmap= 'seismic' )

Markers 

>>> fig, ax = plt.subplots()
>>> ax.scatter(x,y,marker= ".")
>>> ax.plot(x,y,marker= "o")

Linestyles 

>>> plt.plot(x,y,linewidth=4.0)
>>> plt.plot(x,y,ls= 'solid') 
>>> plt.plot(x,y,ls= '--') 
>>> plt.plot(x,y,'--' ,x**2,y**2,'-.' ) 
>>> plt.setp(lines,color= 'r',linewidth=4.0)

Text & Annotations 

>>> ax.text(1,
           -2.1, 
           'Example Graph', 
            style= 'italic' )
>>> ax.annotate("Sine", 
xy=(8, 0),
xycoords= 'data', 
xytext=(10.5, 0),
textcoords= 'data', 
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle= "->", 
connectionstyle="arc3"),)

Mathtext 

>>> plt.title(r '$sigma_i=15$', fontsize=20)

Limits, Legends and Layouts 

Limits & Autoscaling 

>>> ax.margins(x=0.0,y=0.1) #Add padding to a plot
>>> ax.axis('equal')  #Set the aspect ratio of the plot to 1
>>> ax.set(xlim=[0,10.5],ylim=[-1.5,1.5])  #Set limits for x-and y-axis
>>> ax.set_xlim(0,10.5) #Set limits for x-axis

Legends 

>>> ax.set(title= 'An Example Axes',  #Set a title and x-and y-axis labels
            ylabel= 'Y-Axis', 
            xlabel= 'X-Axis')
>>> ax.legend(loc= 'best')  #No overlapping plot elements

Ticks 

>>> ax.xaxis.set(ticks=range(1,5),  #Manually set x-ticks
             ticklabels=[3,100, 12,"foo" ])
>>> ax.tick_params(axis= 'y', #Make y-ticks longer and go in and out
             direction= 'inout', 
              length=10)

Subplot Spacing 

>>> fig3.subplots_adjust(wspace=0.5,   #Adjust the spacing between subplots
             hspace=0.3,
             left=0.125,
             right=0.9,
             top=0.9,
             bottom=0.1)
>>> fig.tight_layout() #Fit subplot(s) in to the figure area

Axis Spines 

>>> ax1.spines[ 'top'].set_visible(False) #Make the top axis line for a plot invisible
>>> ax1.spines['bottom' ].set_position(( 'outward',10))  #Move the bottom axis line outward

Have this Cheat Sheet at your fingertips

Original article source at https://www.datacamp.com

#matplotlib #cheatsheet #python