Generating Poisson Distributions with Shiny Web Apps

Generating Poisson Distributions with Shiny Web Apps

Interactive probability analysis with Shiny Web Apps. A Poisson distribution allows us to visualise the probability of an event occurring within a given time interval.

A Poisson distribution allows us to visualise the probability of an event occurring within a given time interval. The events must be independent of each other.

Some examples of this could be:

  • The number of emails received by a person per week (assuming emails arrive independently of each other)
  • Number of extreme weather events in a given interval, e.g. probability of an abnormally cold wave in a country every 10 years
  • Number of product sales by a company in a given week

Example

Let’s take an example of hotel cancellations (data and research from Antonio, Almeida and Nunes, available from the References section below).

Suppose that for a given week, a hotel can expect a certain number of booking cancellations. Based on the first dataset in the study (H1), a hotel can expect an average of 115 booking cancellations per week.

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From the above, we can see that the hotel could expect about a minimum of 90 cancellations per week, and a maximum of 150 cancellations per week.

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