Improving a Famous NFL Prediction Model. Diving deep into the stats of the NFL to improve a famous model that has the potential to rival those in Vegas
The NFL season is right around the corner. Players are nearing the end of training camp, and fans alike are eager to watch their favorite team play on Sunday again. How we got here has been unconventional, to say the least. The offseason has been one we’ve never seen before, as the same can be said of this year in general. We should all be thankful there will even be a 2020 season given how this year has played out. But never less football appears to be back, and everyone is getting ready.
When I say everyone is getting ready I’m talking about; coaches, players, fans, sports outlets, sports writers, sports betters, and Vegas. Vegas may look like the odd one out but I ensure you they have prepared for the 2020 season more than anyone else. Why is that you may ask? Well because they're in the industry of information. The more information they have, the more money you lose.
See as the 2020 season rolls around Vegas will put odds out on hundreds of events that will happen in the current season, and every year millions of betters lay money on those odds hoping they occur. Spoiler Alert! Many of those betters will lose. Why? Because those odds don’t just come out of thin air. No, they are generated by elaborate models that when inputted information will output a probability of an event that most betters will often over or under value. This is why most betters lose. They simply don’t have the info that Vegas has.
There are those that will win against Vegas and continually win against them. These betters have created their own models that compete with the ones Vegas uses, and is where our famous model comes into place.
You're probably wondering what this quote on quote “Famous Model” is, well it was created by Nate Silver, the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight and his team.
FiveThirtyEight is a website focused on politics, economics, and sports blogging. They're famous for using statistical analysis and hard numbers to tell compelling stories and create models that show or predict an outcome. Questionably their most famous is their NFL prediction model. The model has been seen to compare to those in Vegas and is the reason many professional sports betters use it. They rely on the predictions and bet accordingly to what the model says.
The model was created in 2014 and has been continuously updated over the years to further improve the accuracy of the predictions. But in 2020 I have found ways to improve the model and increase the accuracy of the predictions even further. I will go more into detail later on but I think it’s time you finally learn what this famous model is and how it works.
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