Sentiment analysis and the stock market: A Brazilian tale?

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The recent cyclical changes in the Brazilian economy caused a massive entry of individuals into the stock market. Due to the country’s historical high interest rates, these investors used to invest their money in government bonds or in savings accounts, but, once the inflation seems to be under control since 2016, the returns of lower risk investments began to be compromised as the central bank lowered the basic interest rate (known as SELIC).

As we can see in the graph below, the return on an LTN bond, which used to have a return above 10% per year, currently yields no more than 6% in nominal terms.

As Brazilian investors started looking for new alternatives to invest their money, the Ibovespa (the main index in the Brazilian market) started to rise inexorably, until the recent outbreak of Coronavirus. As we can see in the chart below, the Brazilian stock market recovered significantly fast, following the trend in other world markets, after the coronavirus outbreak.

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Stock Fundamental Analysis: EDA of SEC’s quarterly data summary

Many investors consider fundamental analysis as their secret weapon to beat the stock market. You can perform it using many methods, but one thing they have in common. They all need data about companies’ financial statements.

Luckily all stocks traded on US stock markets must quarterly report to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Every quarter SEC prepares a comfortable CSV package to help all the investors in their quest for the investment opportunity. Let’s explore how to get valuable insights from these .csv files.

In this tutorial, we will use python’s pandas library which ideal for parsing CSV files, and we will learn how to:

• explore the **structure **of the quarterly dump
• identify the records are we **interested **in
• get an idea of how many submission forms exist
• Delve into the content of 10-K, 8-K or 40-F forms
• Analyze if every company report only a single file each quarter
• Checks if the submission meet the SEC’s deadlines

We will process the data and:

• explore files in the SEC dump
• review each column of these files and talk about the most relevant
• remove **duplicated **data grouped by a key column or multiple columns
• visualize the data to support our exploration using interactive Plotly charts
• and much more

As usual, you can follow the code in the notebook shared on GitHub.

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SEC Quarterly data

There doesn’t seem to be any problem. You simply download the quarterly package from the SEC dataset page, you sort the values from the financial statements in descending order and pick the stocks on the top. The reality isn’t that straightforward. Let’s have a look and explore 45.55MB big zip file with all SEC filings for the first quarter of 2020.

The package for every quarter contains 5 files. Here’s an example of 2020 Q1:

• readme.htm — describes the structure of the files
• **sub.txt **— master information about the submissions including company identifiers and type of the filing
• **num.txt **— numeric data for each financial statement and other documents
• tag.txt — standard taxonomy tags
• pre.txt — information about how the data from num.txt is displayed in the online presentation

Unzipped files in the SEC quarterly data dump

This article will only deal with the submission master because it contains more than enough information for one article. Follow-up story will examine the data in more detail. Let’s begin.

2020Q1 Submission files

In the first quarter of 2020, the companies have submitted 13560 files and the sub.txt gathers 36 columns about them.

# load the .csv file into pandas
sub = pd.read_csv(os.path.join(folder,"sub.txt"), sep="\t", dtype={"cik":str})

# explore number of rows and columns
sub.shape
[Out]: (13560, 36)

I always start with a simple function that reviews each column of the data frame, checks the percentage of empty values, and how many unique values appear in the columns.

Explore the sub.txt file to see what data each column contain

Let me highlight a few important columns in the SEC submission master.

Example of the quick file overview in pandas

• adsh — EDGAR accession number uniquely identifies each report. This value is **never duplicated **in the sub.txt. Example 0001353283–20–000008 is the code for 10-K (yearly filing) of Splunk.
• cik — Central Index Key, unique key identifying each SEC registrant. E.g. 0001353283 for Splunk. As you can see the first part of the adsh is the cik.
• name — the name of the company submitting the quarterly financial data
• form — the type of the report being submitted

---

Form s— submissions types delivered to SEC

Based on the analysis, we see that the 2020Q1 submission contains 23 unique types of financial reports. Investors’ primary interest lies in the 10-K report, which covers the annual performance of the publically traded company. Because this report is expectedly delivered only once a year, important is also 10-Q report showing quarterly changes in the company’s financials.

• 10-K Annual report of US-based company
• 10-Q Quarterly report and maybe
• 20-F Annual Reports of a foreign company
• 40-F Annual Reports of a foreign company (Canadian)

Let’s see which forms are the most common in the dataset. Plotting of the form types in the 2020Q1 will show this picture:

Using Plotly’s low level API to produce bar and pie subplots

Different submission types reported by the companies in 2020Q1 using visualization in Plotly

The dataset contains over 7000 8-K reports notifying about important events like agreements, layoffs, usage of material, modification of shareholder rights, change in the senior positions, and more (see SEC’s guideline). Since they are the most common we should spend some time exploring them.

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Sentiment Analysis in Python using Machine Learning

Sentiment analysis or opinion mining is a simple task of understanding the emotions of the writer of a particular text. What was the intent of the writer when writing a certain thing?

We use various natural language processing (NLP) and text analysis tools to figure out what could be subjective information. We need to identify, extract and quantify such details from the text for easier classification and working with the data.

But why do we need sentiment analysis?

Sentiment analysis serves as a fundamental aspect of dealing with customers on online portals and websites for the companies. They do this all the time to classify a comment as a query, complaint, suggestion, opinion, or just love for a product. This way they can easily sort through the comments or questions and prioritize what they need to handle first and even order them in a way that looks better. Companies sometimes even try to delete content that has a negative sentiment attached to it.

It is an easy way to understand and analyze public reception and perception of different ideas and concepts, or a newly launched product, maybe an event or a government policy.

Emotion understanding and sentiment analysis play a huge role in collaborative filtering based recommendation systems. Grouping together people who have similar reactions to a certain product and showing them related products. Like recommending movies to people by grouping them with others that have similar perceptions for a certain show or movie.

Lastly, they are also used for spam filtering and removing unwanted content.

How does sentiment analysis work?

NLP or natural language processing is the basic concept on which sentiment analysis is built upon. Natural language processing is a superclass of sentiment analysis that deals with understanding all kinds of things from a piece of text.

NLP is the branch of AI dealing with texts, giving machines the ability to understand and derive from the text. For tasks such as virtual assistant, query solving, creating and maintaining human-like conversations, summarizing texts, spam detection, sentiment analysis, etc. it includes everything from counting the number of words to a machine writing a story, indistinguishable from human texts.

Sentiment analysis can be classified into various categories based on various criteria. Depending upon the scope it can be classified into document-level sentiment analysis, sentence level sentiment analysis, and sub sentence level or phrase level sentiment analysis.

Also, a very common classification is based on what needs to be done with the data or the reason for sentiment analysis. Examples of which are

• Simple classification of text into positive, negative or neutral. It may also advance into fine grained answers like very positive or moderately positive.
• Aspect-based sentiment analysis- where we figure out the sentiment along with a specific aspect it is related to. Like identifying sentiments regarding various aspects or parts of a car in user reviews, identifying what feature or aspect was appreciated or disliked.
• The sentiment along with an action associated with it. Like mails written to customer support. Understanding if it is a query or complaint or suggestion etc

Based on what needs to be done and what kind of data we need to work with there are two major methods of tackling this problem.

• Matching rules based sentiment analysis: There is a predefined list of words for each type of sentiment needed and then the text or document is matched with the lists. The algorithm then determines which type of words or which sentiment is more prevalent in it.
• This type of rule based sentiment analysis is easy to implement, but lacks flexibility and does not account for context.
• Automatic sentiment analysis: They are mostly based on supervised machine learning algorithms and are actually very useful in understanding complicated texts. Algorithms in this category include support vector machine, linear regression, rnn, and its types. This is what we are gonna explore and learn more about.

In this machine learning project, we will use recurrent neural network for sentiment analysis in python.

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