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You have finally selected a washing machine which is gonna wash all your blues (no pun) and socks without complaining, for the rest of your life. Color- check, price- in budget, better than your ‘always boasting’ neighbor- check. Just about you are leaving the aisle and heading towards billing section with your happy machine; the overly-positive salesman makes you an offer you can’t refuse.

He asks you; whether you would be willing to buy an extended warranty for another 10K- which includes 1 year of extra cover after your company warranty ends. Now, as a smart buyer as you are- you are in a bit of dilemma; to take the extended warranty or not.

Probability to the rescue! A beer company actually ran a 2 Million \$ experiment to help you take your extended warranty decision- more on this later. Let me first lay down some penny stocks about the math of practical- probability (its short and it’s not that boring).

Probability is everywhere. Boarding a bus; visiting a grocery store for your favorite snack; chances of your win in Ludo, winning a lottery, your insurance claim approvals and much more. It’s just that we don’t really care enough to work on the math behind it. Probabilities do not tell us what will happen for sure, they tell us; what is likely to happen and what is less likely to happen. It can help you with something as spectacular as winning a lottery, or something miserable such as investing in a down-falling stock. It’s all about numbers; it’s all about chances- but probability triumphs in the end.

Let’s do some brain-storming. When it comes to risk, our fears always gets the better of us by making us conveniently ignore the actual risk in figures. According to a striking finding from Freakonomics-by Steve Levitt and Stephen Dubner – swimming pools in the backyard of houses are far dangerous than guns in the closet. A child under the age of 10 is 100 times more likely to die in a swimming pool than from a gun accident.

#bernoulli-distribution #game-theory #statistics #machine-learning

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