Training Neural Networks for price prediction with TensorFlow

Using Deep Neural Networks for regression problems might seem like overkill (and quite often is), but for some cases where you have a significant amount of high dimensional data they can outperform any other ML models.

When you learn about Neural Networks you usually start with some image classification problem like the MNIST dataset — this is an obvious choice as advanced tasks with high dimensional data is where DNNs really thrive.

Surprisingly, when you try to apply what you learned on MNIST on a regression tasks you might struggle for a while before your super-advanced DNN model is any better than a basic Random Forest Regressor. Sometimes you might never reach that moment…

In this guide, I listed some key tips and tricks learned while using DNN for regression problems. The data is a set of nearly 50 features describing 25k properties in Warsaw. I described the feature selection process in my previous article: feature-selection-and-error-analysis-while-working-with-spatial-data so now we will focus on creating the best possible model predicting property price per m2 using the selected features.

The code and data source used for this article can be found on GitHub.

1. Getting started

When training a Deep Neural Network I usually follow these key steps:

• A) Choose a default architecture — no. of layers, no. of neurons, activation
• B) Regularize model
• C) Adjust network architecture
• D) Adjust the learning rate and no. of epochs
• E) Extract optimal model using CallBacks

Usually creating the final model takes a few runs through all of these steps but an important thing to remember is: DO ONE THING AT A TIME. Don’t try to change architecture, regularization, and learning rate at the same time as you will not know what really worked and probably spend hours going in circles.

#deep-learning #regression #tensorflow #machine-learning #neural-networks #deep learning

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No Code introduction to Neural Networks

The simple architecture explained

Neural networks have been around for a long time, being developed in the 1960s as a way to simulate neural activity for the development of artificial intelligence systems. However, since then they have developed into a useful analytical tool often used in replace of, or in conjunction with, standard statistical models such as regression or classification as they can be used to predict or more a specific output. The main difference, and advantage, in this regard is that neural networks make no initial assumptions as to the form of the relationship or distribution that underlies the data, meaning they can be more flexible and capture non-standard and non-linear relationships between input and output variables, making them incredibly valuable in todays data rich environment.

In this sense, their use has took over the past decade or so, with the fall in costs and increase in ability of general computing power, the rise of large datasets allowing these models to be trained, and the development of frameworks such as TensforFlow and Keras that have allowed people with sufficient hardware (in some cases this is no longer even an requirement through cloud computing), the correct data and an understanding of a given coding language to implement them. This article therefore seeks to be provide a no code introduction to their architecture and how they work so that their implementation and benefits can be better understood.

Firstly, the way these models work is that there is an input layer, one or more hidden layers and an output layer, each of which are connected by layers of synaptic weights¹. The input layer (X) is used to take in scaled values of the input, usually within a standardised range of 0–1. The hidden layers (Z) are then used to define the relationship between the input and output using weights and activation functions. The output layer (Y) then transforms the results from the hidden layers into the predicted values, often also scaled to be within 0–1. The synaptic weights (W) connecting these layers are used in model training to determine the weights assigned to each input and prediction in order to get the best model fit. Visually, this is represented as:

#machine-learning #python #neural-networks #tensorflow #neural-network-algorithm #no code introduction to neural networks

Training Neural Networks for price prediction with TensorFlow

Using Deep Neural Networks for regression problems might seem like overkill (and quite often is), but for some cases where you have a significant amount of high dimensional data they can outperform any other ML models.

When you learn about Neural Networks you usually start with some image classification problem like the MNIST dataset — this is an obvious choice as advanced tasks with high dimensional data is where DNNs really thrive.

Surprisingly, when you try to apply what you learned on MNIST on a regression tasks you might struggle for a while before your super-advanced DNN model is any better than a basic Random Forest Regressor. Sometimes you might never reach that moment…

In this guide, I listed some key tips and tricks learned while using DNN for regression problems. The data is a set of nearly 50 features describing 25k properties in Warsaw. I described the feature selection process in my previous article: feature-selection-and-error-analysis-while-working-with-spatial-data so now we will focus on creating the best possible model predicting property price per m2 using the selected features.

The code and data source used for this article can be found on GitHub.

1. Getting started

When training a Deep Neural Network I usually follow these key steps:

• A) Choose a default architecture — no. of layers, no. of neurons, activation
• B) Regularize model
• C) Adjust network architecture
• D) Adjust the learning rate and no. of epochs
• E) Extract optimal model using CallBacks

Usually creating the final model takes a few runs through all of these steps but an important thing to remember is: DO ONE THING AT A TIME. Don’t try to change architecture, regularization, and learning rate at the same time as you will not know what really worked and probably spend hours going in circles.

#deep-learning #regression #tensorflow #machine-learning #neural-networks #deep learning

Neural Networks: Importance of Optimizer Selection

When constructing a neural network, there are several optimizers available in the Keras API in order to do so.

An optimizer is used to minimise the loss of a network by appropriately modifying the weights and learning rate.

For regression-based problems (where the response variable is in numerical format), the most frequently encountered optimizer is the **Adam **optimizer, which uses a stochastic gradient descent method that estimates first-order and second-order moments.

The available optimizers in the Keras API are as follows:

• SGD
• RMSprop
• Adam
• Adadelta
• Adagrad
• Adamax
• Nadam
• Ftrl

The purpose of choosing the most suitable optimiser is not necessarily to achieve the highest accuracy per se — but rather to minimise the training required by the neural network to achieve a given level of accuracy. After all, it is much more efficient if a neural network can be trained to achieve a certain level of accuracy after 10 epochs than after 50, for instance.

#machine-learning #neural-network-algorithm #data-science #keras #tensorflow #neural networks

Stock Price Prediction: Single Neural Network with Tensorflow

Let’s learn how to predict stock prices using a single layer neural network with the help of TensorFlow Backend. You’ll be in awe when you see how marvelous such a simple architecture performs on a dataset of stock prices.
The content of this blog is inspired by the Coursera Series: Sequences, Time Series and Prediction.

#tensorflow #network

Autonomous Driving Network (ADN) On Its Way

Talking about inspiration in the networking industry, nothing more than Autonomous Driving Network (ADN). You may hear about this and wondering what this is about, and does it have anything to do with autonomous driving vehicles? Your guess is right; the ADN concept is derived from or inspired by the rapid development of the autonomous driving car in recent years.

Driverless Car of the Future, the advertisement for “America’s Electric Light and Power Companies,” Saturday Evening Post, the 1950s.

The vision of autonomous driving has been around for more than 70 years. But engineers continuously make attempts to achieve the idea without too much success. The concept stayed as a fiction for a long time. In 2004, the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Administration (DARPA) organized the Grand Challenge for autonomous vehicles for teams to compete for the grand prize of $1 million. I remembered watching TV and saw those competing vehicles, behaved like driven by drunk man, had a really tough time to drive by itself. I thought that autonomous driving vision would still have a long way to go. To my surprise, the next year, 2005, Stanford University’s vehicles autonomously drove 131 miles in California’s Mojave desert without a scratch and took the $1 million Grand Challenge prize. How was that possible? Later I learned that the secret ingredient to make this possible was using the latest ML (Machine Learning) enabled AI (Artificial Intelligent ) technology.

Since then, AI technologies advanced rapidly and been implemented in all verticals. Around the 2016 time frame, the concept of Autonomous Driving Network started to emerge by combining AI and network to achieve network operational autonomy. The automation concept is nothing new in the networking industry; network operations are continually being automated here and there. But this time, ADN is beyond automating mundane tasks; it reaches a whole new level. With the help of AI technologies and other critical ingredients advancement like SDN (Software Defined Network), autonomous networking has a great chance from a vision to future reality.

In this article, we will examine some critical components of the ADN, current landscape, and factors that are important for ADN to be a success.

The Vision

At the current stage, there are different terminologies to describe ADN vision by various organizations.

Even though slightly different terminologies, the industry is moving towards some common terms and consensus called autonomous networks, e.g. TMF, ETSI, ITU-T, GSMA. The core vision includes business and network aspects. The autonomous network delivers the “hyper-loop” from business requirements all the way to network and device layers.

On the network layer, it contains the below critical aspects:

• Intent-Driven: Understand the operator’s business intent and automatically translate it into necessary network operations. The operation can be a one-time operation like disconnect a connection service or continuous operations like maintaining a specified SLA (Service Level Agreement) at the all-time.
• **Self-Discover: **Automatically discover hardware/software changes in the network and populate the changes to the necessary subsystems to maintain always-sync state.
• **Self-Config/Self-Organize: **Whenever network changes happen, automatically configure corresponding hardware/software parameters such that the network is at the pre-defined target states.
• **Self-Monitor: **Constantly monitor networks/services operation states and health conditions automatically.
• Auto-Detect: Detect network faults, abnormalities, and intrusions automatically.
• **Self-Diagnose: **Automatically conduct an inference process to figure out the root causes of issues.
• **Self-Healing: **Automatically take necessary actions to address issues and bring the networks/services back to the desired state.
• **Self-Report: **Automatically communicate with its environment and exchange necessary information.
• Automated common operational scenarios: Automatically perform operations like network planning, customer and service onboarding, network change management.

On top of those, these capabilities need to be across multiple services, multiple domains, and the entire lifecycle(TMF, 2019).

No doubt, this is the most ambitious goal that the networking industry has ever aimed at. It has been described as the “end-state” and“ultimate goal” of networking evolution. This is not just a vision on PPT, the networking industry already on the move toward the goal.

David Wang, Huawei’s Executive Director of the Board and President of Products & Solutions, said in his 2018 Ultra-Broadband Forum(UBBF) keynote speech. (David W. 2018):

“In a fully connected and intelligent era, autonomous driving is becoming a reality. Industries like automotive, aerospace, and manufacturing are modernizing and renewing themselves by introducing autonomous technologies. However, the telecom sector is facing a major structural problem: Networks are growing year by year, but OPEX is growing faster than revenue. What’s more, it takes 100 times more effort for telecom operators to maintain their networks than OTT players. Therefore, it’s imperative that telecom operators build autonomous driving networks.”

Juniper CEO Rami Rahim said in his keynote at the company’s virtual AI event: (CRN, 2020)

“The goal now is a self-driving network. The call to action is to embrace the change. We can all benefit from putting more time into higher-layer activities, like keeping distributors out of the business. The future, I truly believe, is about getting the network out of the way. It is time for the infrastructure to take a back seat to the self-driving network.”

Is This Vision Achievable?

If you asked me this question 15 years ago, my answer would be “no chance” as I could not imagine an autonomous driving vehicle was possible then. But now, the vision is not far-fetch anymore not only because of ML/AI technology rapid advancement but other key building blocks are made significant progress, just name a few key building blocks:

• software-defined networking (SDN) control
• industry-standard models and open APIs
• Real-time analytics/telemetry
• big data processing
• cross-domain orchestration
• programmable infrastructure
• cloud-native virtualized network functions (VNF)
• DevOps agile development process
• everything-as-service design paradigm
• intelligent process automation
• edge computing
• cloud infrastructure
• programing paradigm suitable for building an autonomous system . i.e., teleo-reactive programs, which is a set of reactive rules that continuously sense the environment and trigger actions whose continuous execution eventually leads the system to satisfy a goal. (Nils Nilsson, 1996)
• open-source solutions

#network-automation #autonomous-network #ai-in-network #self-driving-network #neural-networks