Elton  Bogan

Elton Bogan

1601098200

Predicting the flow of the South Fork Payette River using an LSTM neural network

TL;DR:

I made an LSTM neural network model that uses 30+ years of weather and streamflow data to quite accurately predict what the streamflow will be tomorrow.

The problem with river forecasts

The main reason I practice data science is to apply it to real-world problems. As a kayaker, I have spent many, many hours poring over weather forecasts, hydrologic forecasts, and SNOTEL station data to make a prediction about a river’s flow. There are good places out there that make this prediction- NOAA runs prediction centers throughout each major river basin in the country, including the South Fork.

But these forecasts often fall short. In particular, I’ve noticed that the forecasts are susceptible to major rain events (flashy rivers in the Pacific Northwest are notoriously hard to predict), and the forecasts are typically only put out once or twice per day, which is often not frequent enough to react to rapidly changing mountain weather forecasts. NOAA also only gives forecasts on a select group of rivers. If you want a forecast for a smaller or more remote drainage, even if it’s gauged, you’re out of luck.

So I’m setting out to create a model that will meet or exceed NOAA’s forecasts, and build models for some drainages that are not covered by NOAA.

To start out, I’m benchmarking my model against an industry-standard model created by Upstream Tech.

The South Fork Payette is a great place to start, for several reasons:

  1. The South Fork above Lowman is undammed, so the confounding variables of reservoirs are avoided.
  2. The USGS operates a gauge on the South Fork, NOAA has weather stations and a river forecast, and there are SNOTEL sites in the basin. There is a lot of easily accessible data to start with.
  3. I used to teach kayaking on the Payette and I’ve paddled almost every section of the river system, so I know the region and its hydrology well!

#machine-learning #lstm #hydrology #idaho #neural-networks

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Predicting the flow of the South Fork Payette River using an LSTM neural network
Chloe  Butler

Chloe Butler

1667425440

Pdf2gerb: Perl Script Converts PDF Files to Gerber format

pdf2gerb

Perl script converts PDF files to Gerber format

Pdf2Gerb generates Gerber 274X photoplotting and Excellon drill files from PDFs of a PCB. Up to three PDFs are used: the top copper layer, the bottom copper layer (for 2-sided PCBs), and an optional silk screen layer. The PDFs can be created directly from any PDF drawing software, or a PDF print driver can be used to capture the Print output if the drawing software does not directly support output to PDF.

The general workflow is as follows:

  1. Design the PCB using your favorite CAD or drawing software.
  2. Print the top and bottom copper and top silk screen layers to a PDF file.
  3. Run Pdf2Gerb on the PDFs to create Gerber and Excellon files.
  4. Use a Gerber viewer to double-check the output against the original PCB design.
  5. Make adjustments as needed.
  6. Submit the files to a PCB manufacturer.

Please note that Pdf2Gerb does NOT perform DRC (Design Rule Checks), as these will vary according to individual PCB manufacturer conventions and capabilities. Also note that Pdf2Gerb is not perfect, so the output files must always be checked before submitting them. As of version 1.6, Pdf2Gerb supports most PCB elements, such as round and square pads, round holes, traces, SMD pads, ground planes, no-fill areas, and panelization. However, because it interprets the graphical output of a Print function, there are limitations in what it can recognize (or there may be bugs).

See docs/Pdf2Gerb.pdf for install/setup, config, usage, and other info.


pdf2gerb_cfg.pm

#Pdf2Gerb config settings:
#Put this file in same folder/directory as pdf2gerb.pl itself (global settings),
#or copy to another folder/directory with PDFs if you want PCB-specific settings.
#There is only one user of this file, so we don't need a custom package or namespace.
#NOTE: all constants defined in here will be added to main namespace.
#package pdf2gerb_cfg;

use strict; #trap undef vars (easier debug)
use warnings; #other useful info (easier debug)


##############################################################################################
#configurable settings:
#change values here instead of in main pfg2gerb.pl file

use constant WANT_COLORS => ($^O !~ m/Win/); #ANSI colors no worky on Windows? this must be set < first DebugPrint() call

#just a little warning; set realistic expectations:
#DebugPrint("${\(CYAN)}Pdf2Gerb.pl ${\(VERSION)}, $^O O/S\n${\(YELLOW)}${\(BOLD)}${\(ITALIC)}This is EXPERIMENTAL software.  \nGerber files MAY CONTAIN ERRORS.  Please CHECK them before fabrication!${\(RESET)}", 0); #if WANT_DEBUG

use constant METRIC => FALSE; #set to TRUE for metric units (only affect final numbers in output files, not internal arithmetic)
use constant APERTURE_LIMIT => 0; #34; #max #apertures to use; generate warnings if too many apertures are used (0 to not check)
use constant DRILL_FMT => '2.4'; #'2.3'; #'2.4' is the default for PCB fab; change to '2.3' for CNC

use constant WANT_DEBUG => 0; #10; #level of debug wanted; higher == more, lower == less, 0 == none
use constant GERBER_DEBUG => 0; #level of debug to include in Gerber file; DON'T USE FOR FABRICATION
use constant WANT_STREAMS => FALSE; #TRUE; #save decompressed streams to files (for debug)
use constant WANT_ALLINPUT => FALSE; #TRUE; #save entire input stream (for debug ONLY)

#DebugPrint(sprintf("${\(CYAN)}DEBUG: stdout %d, gerber %d, want streams? %d, all input? %d, O/S: $^O, Perl: $]${\(RESET)}\n", WANT_DEBUG, GERBER_DEBUG, WANT_STREAMS, WANT_ALLINPUT), 1);
#DebugPrint(sprintf("max int = %d, min int = %d\n", MAXINT, MININT), 1); 

#define standard trace and pad sizes to reduce scaling or PDF rendering errors:
#This avoids weird aperture settings and replaces them with more standardized values.
#(I'm not sure how photoplotters handle strange sizes).
#Fewer choices here gives more accurate mapping in the final Gerber files.
#units are in inches
use constant TOOL_SIZES => #add more as desired
(
#round or square pads (> 0) and drills (< 0):
    .010, -.001,  #tiny pads for SMD; dummy drill size (too small for practical use, but needed so StandardTool will use this entry)
    .031, -.014,  #used for vias
    .041, -.020,  #smallest non-filled plated hole
    .051, -.025,
    .056, -.029,  #useful for IC pins
    .070, -.033,
    .075, -.040,  #heavier leads
#    .090, -.043,  #NOTE: 600 dpi is not high enough resolution to reliably distinguish between .043" and .046", so choose 1 of the 2 here
    .100, -.046,
    .115, -.052,
    .130, -.061,
    .140, -.067,
    .150, -.079,
    .175, -.088,
    .190, -.093,
    .200, -.100,
    .220, -.110,
    .160, -.125,  #useful for mounting holes
#some additional pad sizes without holes (repeat a previous hole size if you just want the pad size):
    .090, -.040,  #want a .090 pad option, but use dummy hole size
    .065, -.040, #.065 x .065 rect pad
    .035, -.040, #.035 x .065 rect pad
#traces:
    .001,  #too thin for real traces; use only for board outlines
    .006,  #minimum real trace width; mainly used for text
    .008,  #mainly used for mid-sized text, not traces
    .010,  #minimum recommended trace width for low-current signals
    .012,
    .015,  #moderate low-voltage current
    .020,  #heavier trace for power, ground (even if a lighter one is adequate)
    .025,
    .030,  #heavy-current traces; be careful with these ones!
    .040,
    .050,
    .060,
    .080,
    .100,
    .120,
);
#Areas larger than the values below will be filled with parallel lines:
#This cuts down on the number of aperture sizes used.
#Set to 0 to always use an aperture or drill, regardless of size.
use constant { MAX_APERTURE => max((TOOL_SIZES)) + .004, MAX_DRILL => -min((TOOL_SIZES)) + .004 }; #max aperture and drill sizes (plus a little tolerance)
#DebugPrint(sprintf("using %d standard tool sizes: %s, max aper %.3f, max drill %.3f\n", scalar((TOOL_SIZES)), join(", ", (TOOL_SIZES)), MAX_APERTURE, MAX_DRILL), 1);

#NOTE: Compare the PDF to the original CAD file to check the accuracy of the PDF rendering and parsing!
#for example, the CAD software I used generated the following circles for holes:
#CAD hole size:   parsed PDF diameter:      error:
#  .014                .016                +.002
#  .020                .02267              +.00267
#  .025                .026                +.001
#  .029                .03167              +.00267
#  .033                .036                +.003
#  .040                .04267              +.00267
#This was usually ~ .002" - .003" too big compared to the hole as displayed in the CAD software.
#To compensate for PDF rendering errors (either during CAD Print function or PDF parsing logic), adjust the values below as needed.
#units are pixels; for example, a value of 2.4 at 600 dpi = .0004 inch, 2 at 600 dpi = .0033"
use constant
{
    HOLE_ADJUST => -0.004 * 600, #-2.6, #holes seemed to be slightly oversized (by .002" - .004"), so shrink them a little
    RNDPAD_ADJUST => -0.003 * 600, #-2, #-2.4, #round pads seemed to be slightly oversized, so shrink them a little
    SQRPAD_ADJUST => +0.001 * 600, #+.5, #square pads are sometimes too small by .00067, so bump them up a little
    RECTPAD_ADJUST => 0, #(pixels) rectangular pads seem to be okay? (not tested much)
    TRACE_ADJUST => 0, #(pixels) traces seemed to be okay?
    REDUCE_TOLERANCE => .001, #(inches) allow this much variation when reducing circles and rects
};

#Also, my CAD's Print function or the PDF print driver I used was a little off for circles, so define some additional adjustment values here:
#Values are added to X/Y coordinates; units are pixels; for example, a value of 1 at 600 dpi would be ~= .002 inch
use constant
{
    CIRCLE_ADJUST_MINX => 0,
    CIRCLE_ADJUST_MINY => -0.001 * 600, #-1, #circles were a little too high, so nudge them a little lower
    CIRCLE_ADJUST_MAXX => +0.001 * 600, #+1, #circles were a little too far to the left, so nudge them a little to the right
    CIRCLE_ADJUST_MAXY => 0,
    SUBST_CIRCLE_CLIPRECT => FALSE, #generate circle and substitute for clip rects (to compensate for the way some CAD software draws circles)
    WANT_CLIPRECT => TRUE, #FALSE, #AI doesn't need clip rect at all? should be on normally?
    RECT_COMPLETION => FALSE, #TRUE, #fill in 4th side of rect when 3 sides found
};

#allow .012 clearance around pads for solder mask:
#This value effectively adjusts pad sizes in the TOOL_SIZES list above (only for solder mask layers).
use constant SOLDER_MARGIN => +.012; #units are inches

#line join/cap styles:
use constant
{
    CAP_NONE => 0, #butt (none); line is exact length
    CAP_ROUND => 1, #round cap/join; line overhangs by a semi-circle at either end
    CAP_SQUARE => 2, #square cap/join; line overhangs by a half square on either end
    CAP_OVERRIDE => FALSE, #cap style overrides drawing logic
};
    
#number of elements in each shape type:
use constant
{
    RECT_SHAPELEN => 6, #x0, y0, x1, y1, count, "rect" (start, end corners)
    LINE_SHAPELEN => 6, #x0, y0, x1, y1, count, "line" (line seg)
    CURVE_SHAPELEN => 10, #xstart, ystart, x0, y0, x1, y1, xend, yend, count, "curve" (bezier 2 points)
    CIRCLE_SHAPELEN => 5, #x, y, 5, count, "circle" (center + radius)
};
#const my %SHAPELEN =
#Readonly my %SHAPELEN =>
our %SHAPELEN =
(
    rect => RECT_SHAPELEN,
    line => LINE_SHAPELEN,
    curve => CURVE_SHAPELEN,
    circle => CIRCLE_SHAPELEN,
);

#panelization:
#This will repeat the entire body the number of times indicated along the X or Y axes (files grow accordingly).
#Display elements that overhang PCB boundary can be squashed or left as-is (typically text or other silk screen markings).
#Set "overhangs" TRUE to allow overhangs, FALSE to truncate them.
#xpad and ypad allow margins to be added around outer edge of panelized PCB.
use constant PANELIZE => {'x' => 1, 'y' => 1, 'xpad' => 0, 'ypad' => 0, 'overhangs' => TRUE}; #number of times to repeat in X and Y directions

# Set this to 1 if you need TurboCAD support.
#$turboCAD = FALSE; #is this still needed as an option?

#CIRCAD pad generation uses an appropriate aperture, then moves it (stroke) "a little" - we use this to find pads and distinguish them from PCB holes. 
use constant PAD_STROKE => 0.3; #0.0005 * 600; #units are pixels
#convert very short traces to pads or holes:
use constant TRACE_MINLEN => .001; #units are inches
#use constant ALWAYS_XY => TRUE; #FALSE; #force XY even if X or Y doesn't change; NOTE: needs to be TRUE for all pads to show in FlatCAM and ViewPlot
use constant REMOVE_POLARITY => FALSE; #TRUE; #set to remove subtractive (negative) polarity; NOTE: must be FALSE for ground planes

#PDF uses "points", each point = 1/72 inch
#combined with a PDF scale factor of .12, this gives 600 dpi resolution (1/72 * .12 = 600 dpi)
use constant INCHES_PER_POINT => 1/72; #0.0138888889; #multiply point-size by this to get inches

# The precision used when computing a bezier curve. Higher numbers are more precise but slower (and generate larger files).
#$bezierPrecision = 100;
use constant BEZIER_PRECISION => 36; #100; #use const; reduced for faster rendering (mainly used for silk screen and thermal pads)

# Ground planes and silk screen or larger copper rectangles or circles are filled line-by-line using this resolution.
use constant FILL_WIDTH => .01; #fill at most 0.01 inch at a time

# The max number of characters to read into memory
use constant MAX_BYTES => 10 * M; #bumped up to 10 MB, use const

use constant DUP_DRILL1 => TRUE; #FALSE; #kludge: ViewPlot doesn't load drill files that are too small so duplicate first tool

my $runtime = time(); #Time::HiRes::gettimeofday(); #measure my execution time

print STDERR "Loaded config settings from '${\(__FILE__)}'.\n";
1; #last value must be truthful to indicate successful load


#############################################################################################
#junk/experiment:

#use Package::Constants;
#use Exporter qw(import); #https://perldoc.perl.org/Exporter.html

#my $caller = "pdf2gerb::";

#sub cfg
#{
#    my $proto = shift;
#    my $class = ref($proto) || $proto;
#    my $settings =
#    {
#        $WANT_DEBUG => 990, #10; #level of debug wanted; higher == more, lower == less, 0 == none
#    };
#    bless($settings, $class);
#    return $settings;
#}

#use constant HELLO => "hi there2"; #"main::HELLO" => "hi there";
#use constant GOODBYE => 14; #"main::GOODBYE" => 12;

#print STDERR "read cfg file\n";

#our @EXPORT_OK = Package::Constants->list(__PACKAGE__); #https://www.perlmonks.org/?node_id=1072691; NOTE: "_OK" skips short/common names

#print STDERR scalar(@EXPORT_OK) . " consts exported:\n";
#foreach(@EXPORT_OK) { print STDERR "$_\n"; }
#my $val = main::thing("xyz");
#print STDERR "caller gave me $val\n";
#foreach my $arg (@ARGV) { print STDERR "arg $arg\n"; }

Download Details:

Author: swannman
Source Code: https://github.com/swannman/pdf2gerb

License: GPL-3.0 license

#perl 

Elton  Bogan

Elton Bogan

1601098200

Predicting the flow of the South Fork Payette River using an LSTM neural network

TL;DR:

I made an LSTM neural network model that uses 30+ years of weather and streamflow data to quite accurately predict what the streamflow will be tomorrow.

The problem with river forecasts

The main reason I practice data science is to apply it to real-world problems. As a kayaker, I have spent many, many hours poring over weather forecasts, hydrologic forecasts, and SNOTEL station data to make a prediction about a river’s flow. There are good places out there that make this prediction- NOAA runs prediction centers throughout each major river basin in the country, including the South Fork.

But these forecasts often fall short. In particular, I’ve noticed that the forecasts are susceptible to major rain events (flashy rivers in the Pacific Northwest are notoriously hard to predict), and the forecasts are typically only put out once or twice per day, which is often not frequent enough to react to rapidly changing mountain weather forecasts. NOAA also only gives forecasts on a select group of rivers. If you want a forecast for a smaller or more remote drainage, even if it’s gauged, you’re out of luck.

So I’m setting out to create a model that will meet or exceed NOAA’s forecasts, and build models for some drainages that are not covered by NOAA.

To start out, I’m benchmarking my model against an industry-standard model created by Upstream Tech.

The South Fork Payette is a great place to start, for several reasons:

  1. The South Fork above Lowman is undammed, so the confounding variables of reservoirs are avoided.
  2. The USGS operates a gauge on the South Fork, NOAA has weather stations and a river forecast, and there are SNOTEL sites in the basin. There is a lot of easily accessible data to start with.
  3. I used to teach kayaking on the Payette and I’ve paddled almost every section of the river system, so I know the region and its hydrology well!

#machine-learning #lstm #hydrology #idaho #neural-networks

Noah  Rowe

Noah Rowe

1597632540

Machine Translation using Neural Networks

Neural machine translation (NMT) is an approach to machine translation that uses an artificial neural network to predict the likelihood of a sequence of words, typically modeling entire sentences in a single integrated model.

Before beginning with machine translation using neural networks, first, we need to see how can we represent words in a sequence as your model works on equations and numbers and it has no place for words it only understands numbers. To do this we use tokenization. Now, what is tokenization? Tokenization is used to create a word dictionary which is there in your corpus stripping the punctuation out, conducting stemming and converting them to lower case, then we assign a specific number to each of the words, called as tokens. This gives us a dictionary where each word is mapped to a specific token. After that, we apply one-hot encoding in order to prevent words with higher token values that have a higher priority or more weight. Machine translation uses encoder-decoder architecture as shown below

Encoder and decoder both use the same neural network model but play a somewhat different role. The encoder is used to encode all the word embeddings and extract context and long term dependencies which are then passed over to decoder to generate output sentence. There are different types of natural language processing models that can be used for this purpose. Now let’s start with the basic sequence model known as Recurrent Neural Networks.

Recurrent Neural Networks

The word recurrent means occurring often or repeatedly. In normal neural networks, we take an input x and feed it forward through our activation units in our hidden layers to get an output y, we do not take any input from the previous steps in the model. This is where we differ in recurrent neural networks, in rnns we not only get data from x[t] at step t but we also get information from a[t-1](activation at the previous step), we do this in order to share features learned across different positions of texts.

#attention #recurrent-neural-network #transformers #machine-translation #lstm #neural networks

Mckenzie  Osiki

Mckenzie Osiki

1623135499

No Code introduction to Neural Networks

The simple architecture explained

Neural networks have been around for a long time, being developed in the 1960s as a way to simulate neural activity for the development of artificial intelligence systems. However, since then they have developed into a useful analytical tool often used in replace of, or in conjunction with, standard statistical models such as regression or classification as they can be used to predict or more a specific output. The main difference, and advantage, in this regard is that neural networks make no initial assumptions as to the form of the relationship or distribution that underlies the data, meaning they can be more flexible and capture non-standard and non-linear relationships between input and output variables, making them incredibly valuable in todays data rich environment.

In this sense, their use has took over the past decade or so, with the fall in costs and increase in ability of general computing power, the rise of large datasets allowing these models to be trained, and the development of frameworks such as TensforFlow and Keras that have allowed people with sufficient hardware (in some cases this is no longer even an requirement through cloud computing), the correct data and an understanding of a given coding language to implement them. This article therefore seeks to be provide a no code introduction to their architecture and how they work so that their implementation and benefits can be better understood.

Firstly, the way these models work is that there is an input layer, one or more hidden layers and an output layer, each of which are connected by layers of synaptic weights¹. The input layer (X) is used to take in scaled values of the input, usually within a standardised range of 0–1. The hidden layers (Z) are then used to define the relationship between the input and output using weights and activation functions. The output layer (Y) then transforms the results from the hidden layers into the predicted values, often also scaled to be within 0–1. The synaptic weights (W) connecting these layers are used in model training to determine the weights assigned to each input and prediction in order to get the best model fit. Visually, this is represented as:

#machine-learning #python #neural-networks #tensorflow #neural-network-algorithm #no code introduction to neural networks

The Recurrent Neural Network (RNNs)

A recurrent neural network (RNN) is an input node (hidden layer) that feeds sigmoid activation. The way an RNN does this is to take the output of one neuron and return it as input to another neuron or feed the input of the current time step to the output of earlier time steps. Here you feed the input from the previous times step by step into the input of the current times and vice versa.

Image for post

This can be used in a variety of ways, such as through learning gates with known variations or a combination of sigmoid activation and a number of other types of neural networks.

Some of the applications for RNNs include predicting energy demand, predicting stock prices, and predicting human behavior. RNNs are modeled over time — based and sequence-based data, but they are also useful in a variety of other applications.

A recurrent neural network is an artificial neural network used for deep learning, machine learning, and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI). They have a number of attributes that make them useful for tasks where data needs to be processed sequentially.

To get a little more technical, recurring neural networks are designed to learn a sequence of data by traversing a hidden state from one step of the sequence to the next, combined with the input, and routing it back and forth between the inputs. RNN are neural networks that are designed for the effective handling of sequential data but are also useful for non-sequential data.

These types of data include text documents that can be seen as a sequence of words or audio files in which you can see a sequence of sound frequencies and times. The more information about the output layer is available, the faster it can be read and sequenced, and the better its performance.

#recurrent-neural-network #lstm #rnn #artificial-intelligence #neural network