Blueprint for a Aimple Forecasting Program

Short and long-term forecasting is an essential business activity in every sector for decision-making. Call centers need to know the increase in call volumes five years from now to maintain adequate staffing to serve the customers. Electric companies want to forecast growth in power consumption in the next ten years so they can invest in new installations to keep up with additional demands. Small businesses need to see how their investments are paying off over the next few years and make necessary adjustments.

All these business needs require forecasting. Traditionally these forecasting is done on an _ad hoc _basis with limited tools at the disposal of data scientists. Time series techniques have been around for a long time, but they have their own limitations and often they do not provide necessary accuracy and point toward specific uncertainties. With time series it is also difficult to develop scenarios and do sensitivity analysis of key performance indicators (KPIs) as a result of new policies.

With that in mind, in this article I introduce a blueprint for a different kind of forecasting technique that relies rather on few data points. As well will see below, this technique also allows for scenario analysis of the impacts of specific business decisions and their impacts on KPIs.

System dynamic modeling

System Dynamics is a methodological approach for complex systems modeling, where a change in one element leads to a change in others.

It is widely applied in healthcare, epidemiology, transportation, business management, and revenue forecasting. Arguably the most famous of all is modeling Limits to Growth by the Club of Rome.

A System Dynamic model represents a complex system in terms of stocks & flows and their interactions via feedback loops to predict the behavior of the system. Let’s say a bank account has a “stock” of $100. Every month $20 is deposited (represented by Flow 1), and an amount of $15/month is withdrawn (Flow 2). In this simple case, a change in Flow 1 will cause a change in Stock 1 and _Flow 2. _So if we know how Flow 1 will evolve into the future, we can forecast both Stock 1 and Flow 2.

Stocks, flows and feedback loops in SD modeling (source: author)

Using a similar concept, below I’m presenting an approach to forecasting that depends on fewer data points rather than complex time series modeling which is used in traditional forecasting.

A simple blueprint with necessary codes is presented below. I’m also testing it in GDP forecasting of three major economies in the world. But this concept can be applied to any other business forecasting and decision-making process.

#visualization #systems-thinking #forecasting #business-intelligence #data-science

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Coding 101: Programming Language Building Blocks

This article will introduce the concepts and topics common to all programming languages, that beginners and experts must know!

Do you want to learn a programming language for the first time?

Do you want to improve as a Programmer?

Well, then you’re in the right place to start. Learn any programming language without difficulty by learning the concepts and topics common to all programming languages.

Let me start by answering the following questions:

• Why learn Programming?
• What is Programming?
• How to Learn a Programming Language?

Why learn Programming❔

Programming develops creative thinking

Programmers solve a problem by breaking it down into workable pieces to understand it better. When you start learning to program, you develop the habit of working your way out in a very structured format. You analyze the problem and start thinking logically and this gives rise to more creative solutions you’ve ever given.

Whether you want to uncover the secrets of the universe, or you just want to pursue a career in the 21st century, basic computer programming is an essential skill to learn.

_– _Stephen Hawking

Everybody in this country should learn how to program a computer… because it teaches you how to think.

_- _Steve Jobs

Programming Provides Life-Changing Experiences

Programming always provides you with a new challenge to take risks every time and that teaches you to take risks in your personal life too. The world is filled up with websites, apps, software and when you build these yourself you’ll feel more confident. When a programmer solves a problem that no one has ever solved before it becomes a life-changing experience for them.

What is Programming🤔?

A program is a set of instructions to perform a task on a computer.

Programming is the process of designing and building an executable computer program to accomplish a specific task.

Well, according to me programming is like raising a baby. We provide knowledge (data) to help understand a baby what’s happening around. We teach a baby to be disciplined (and much more) by making rules.

Similarly, a computer is like a baby. We set rules and provide data to the computer through executable programs with the help of a Programming Language.

(Photo by Clément H on Unsplash)

That’s it👍. If you can understand this basic concept of programming, you’re good to go. Pick up a programming language and start learning. Read the following section to get an idea of where to start.

My recommendation is to choose Python Programming Language as a start, because it’s beginner-friendly.

#programming #programming-tips #programming-language #programming-top-story #computer-science #data-structures-and-algorithms #tips-for-programmers #coding

Programming In Acceleration: Levelling Up Programming Skills

Some require and some are not. But acceleration programs might require you to build one. I’ll tell you how I made a computer program for the competition.

1-Researched the source codes and pasted it on my VS code

Written on the internet “blockchain-based ticket codes” and found the Ethereum source codes in Github. Then, I’ve just copied and pasted on my VS code by naming with .sol extension. Then, I’ve got my hands on the code itself and started to correct the mistakes that the editor has shown so far. Managed to reduce 189 errors to 58 within two hours. The rest was handled by my teammate when I sent the code I’ve edited. He just fixed the codes in three more hours and my mistake was not to increase the gas price. We increased the gas price on the remix and everything worked. And he just tested the software on scalability and security. It was the perfect garment for us that everything worked except the indentation errors.

What should’ve been done by us

Found all the codes including testing, copied them, and pasted them to our text editor for further analysis. Still, we had the prototype and we could write all the test codes, migrations, etc. if needed. Even more, we should’ve researched the codes to our project before using one of the examples.

#acceleration-program #program-analysis #programming #startup #acceleration #data analysis

Blueprint for a Aimple Forecasting Program

Short and long-term forecasting is an essential business activity in every sector for decision-making. Call centers need to know the increase in call volumes five years from now to maintain adequate staffing to serve the customers. Electric companies want to forecast growth in power consumption in the next ten years so they can invest in new installations to keep up with additional demands. Small businesses need to see how their investments are paying off over the next few years and make necessary adjustments.

All these business needs require forecasting. Traditionally these forecasting is done on an _ad hoc _basis with limited tools at the disposal of data scientists. Time series techniques have been around for a long time, but they have their own limitations and often they do not provide necessary accuracy and point toward specific uncertainties. With time series it is also difficult to develop scenarios and do sensitivity analysis of key performance indicators (KPIs) as a result of new policies.

With that in mind, in this article I introduce a blueprint for a different kind of forecasting technique that relies rather on few data points. As well will see below, this technique also allows for scenario analysis of the impacts of specific business decisions and their impacts on KPIs.

System dynamic modeling

System Dynamics is a methodological approach for complex systems modeling, where a change in one element leads to a change in others.

It is widely applied in healthcare, epidemiology, transportation, business management, and revenue forecasting. Arguably the most famous of all is modeling Limits to Growth by the Club of Rome.

A System Dynamic model represents a complex system in terms of stocks & flows and their interactions via feedback loops to predict the behavior of the system. Let’s say a bank account has a “stock” of $100. Every month $20 is deposited (represented by Flow 1), and an amount of $15/month is withdrawn (Flow 2). In this simple case, a change in Flow 1 will cause a change in Stock 1 and _Flow 2. _So if we know how Flow 1 will evolve into the future, we can forecast both Stock 1 and Flow 2.

Stocks, flows and feedback loops in SD modeling (source: author)

Using a similar concept, below I’m presenting an approach to forecasting that depends on fewer data points rather than complex time series modeling which is used in traditional forecasting.

A simple blueprint with necessary codes is presented below. I’m also testing it in GDP forecasting of three major economies in the world. But this concept can be applied to any other business forecasting and decision-making process.

#visualization #systems-thinking #forecasting #business-intelligence #data-science

Learning C: Input and Output and Two Program Templates

Before I get too deep into C, I need to show you how to get data into and out of your programs. Using assignment for data gets old after a while and you want to be able to have users enter their own data. And you definitely need to be able to see what happens to your data in a program so learning how to display data to the screen is important and necessary.

Besides demonstrating how to perform input and output in C, I will also be demonstrating two templates that are related to those topics — Prompt, Then Read and Input, Process, Output (IPO). The IPO template, in particular, is important because practically every C program you write will use this template.

When I talk about input and output in C, I’ll use the terms standard input and standard output. These terms refer to the default input and output devices on your computer. The standard input device is the keyboard. The standard output device is the computer’s monitor or screen. I will only use the terms input and output and when I use those terms I’m referring to standard input and standard output. If I want to refer to a different device for input and/or output, I’ll use the specific term for that device.

#c-programming-language #c-programming #c-program #c-programming-help

Top 5 Programming Languages to Learn in 2021 | Top Programming Languages | Intellipaat

In this video, you will know the top 5 Programming languages to learn in 2021. It is always confusing for a beginner to choose a programming language from the pool of tens of languages. So we have come up with this video to help you out chose the best one to start your career with and learn programming fast.

#programming #learn-programming #programming-languages #topprogramminglanguages #top5programminglanguages