EPL Game Week 6 Prediction using Data Science: xG Model

EPL Game Week 6 Prediction using Data Science: xG Model

This is an article on my EPL Prediction series. You can check out the prediction for previous Game Week and how it held against the actual performance here.

This is an article on my EPL Prediction series. You can check out the prediction for previous Game Week and how it held against the actual performance here.

Expected Goals or xG is the parameter used for prediction. If you are interested in understanding the algorithm for prediction, I recommend that you check out this article where it is explained in detail.

Analysis Up to Game Week 5

The above figures show xG Scored and xG conceded per match for each team. We can observe that the defending champions, Liverpool is head and shoulders above the rest in creativity. Spurs, Everton and Chelsea are also great attacking sides. The list also features the Villans and Hammers who are having a great run in the league so far. Westbrom lags behind in the list with around 0.5 expected goals created per match! Sheffield, Wolves and Crystal Palace also have less than one expected goals per match.

Aston Villa, the only team to have not dropped any points in the league, is the best defensive side with the lowest expected goals conceded. The Hammers, the Toffees, and the Seagulls also seem to have defence difficult to penetrate. On the other end of the spectrum, Manchester United and Westbrom have the most porous defence.

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Based on xG Scored and xG Conceded, teams can be grouped into 4 quadrants as shown in the above graph. The horizontal dotted line shows the average xG scored per game. Teams above the horizontal dotted line are strong attacking sides and the teams below weak in attack.

The vertical dotted line shows average xG conceded per game, teams to the left of have strong defence and the teams to the right have week defence.

The aim all teams should be in Q2 where both attack and defence are better than the average. For example, The Blades are one of the best defensive sides in the league. However they lack in creativity upfront. They Reds need to immediately address the problems in attack.

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