Mr. Market has Already Prophesied How the Post-Covid World Will Look Like

Mr. Market has Already Prophesied How the Post-Covid World Will Look Like

Mr. Market has Already Prophesied How the Post-Covid World Will Look Like. The market knows it all, and it has prepared itself for the post-Covid world using millions of data points, Have you?

“In life, unlike chess, the game continues after checkmate”-Isaac Asimov.

Coronavirus took everyone by surprise, and it seemed the end of the world and of the human race, which was next to checkmate in Chess. However, life must go on, and after analyzing 30Mn.+ data points across 35 years ranging from Dow jones index to sectors to individual companies for price movements, financial results, news, management guidance, etc., Mr. Market has a clearer idea of how the post-Covid world is going to shape.

If Mr. Market is to be believed, below is a summary of the new normal based on stock performances, i.e., prices on the 1st week of January vs. last week of September in 2020. To give a perspective on the quantum of price changes, Warren Buffet has a CAGR return of 19.1%, and Dow Jones has a CAGR of 5.1%. Savings accounts in the US and India provide an interest rate of ~2% and ~5%, respectively.

  • People will wake up and go for a run in their athletic clothes-Lululemon(+32%) or Nike(+28%) using Apple Watch(+54%) while tuning to Spotify(+16%)
  • They would be getting ready for WFH in comfortable clothes, No Levi Strauss(-29%) or Guess(-48%)
  • Since they are not traveling for work, less oil consumption from British Petroleum(-52%) and Schlumberger(-39%). Also, there are fewer carpools from Lyft(-38%).
  • They would fire up their workstations using more Wifi, Cable One(+25%), and less mobile network, AT&T(-23%). Faster processing is of utmost importance, which will benefit chip manufacturers such as Nvidia(+125%) and AMD(+68%). Since the storage and computing would be on servers, external memory drives such as Seagate(-16%) and Western Digital(-43%) would slim down in importance.
  • They will join their Zoom calls(+670%) using Logitech Webcam(+62%) and will invest in Home improvements/Furniture using Wayfair(+212%) & Lowe’s (+39%). No wonder we are living in Zoom Economy.
  • Companies will engage Cloud-based information security companies ,e.g Zscaler(+197%),DocuSign(+183%) & Okta(+82%)
  • With increasing data size, Cloud-based data companies like Mongo DB(+72%), AWS, and financial data providers such as S&P Global(+31%) and Moody(+20%) will thrive.
  • To prevent the social gathering, the majority of customer demands would be fulfilled from e-commerce companies such as Amazon-Everything Store(+66%), Wayfair-Furniture(+212%), Etsy- Personalised items(+169%), and Chewy- Dog Food(+85%). 12 out of 13 listed e-commerce has grown in a pandemic with a median growth of 105% and the highest growth in Overstock(+932%) and Wayfair(212%).
  • People will prefer fashion shopping at home and visit less of departmental stores like Macy’s(-64%), Nordstrom(-69%), and Kohl’s(-61%).
  • Since offices are closed and less of urban focussed development, Real estate companies such as EPR Properties(-58.5%), Kimco Realty(-41%), etc. will take a huge hit
  • Since small businesses are migrating online, companies serving B2B customers such as Shopify(+151%), Wix(+99%), and Salesforce(+51%) will see a huge demand shift in their favor. Also, since it is an ecosystem change, end-to-end integration would need seamless payment infrastructure, i.e. rise of Paypal(+88%), Square(+155%), etc.
  • For Covid symptoms identification, Teladoc(+163%) and Veeva(+96%) would rise to the occasion. Biotech research companies, Novavax(+2313%), Seres Therapeutics (+745%) with a shot to Covid vaccine have seen a meteoric rise in their valuation.
  • Netflix(+52%) would become a de-facto entertainment source with a major blow to theatres such as Imax(-41%) and WWE(-36%).
  • People will restrict to in-home entertainment i.e Gaming on Sea Limited(+284%),Gravity Co.(+269%), Playstation etc
  • For holidays, people will prefer to stay put, leading to a sharp drop in airlines, hotels, cruise, Theme parks, and gambling stocks.
  • Downturn and Zero FED interest rates would lead to a sharp drop in banks valuation due to drying up of their major revenue source

stocks covid19 stock-market coronavirus data-science

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