The Nature of Uncertainty in the US Presidential Election

Election forecasts are predicting a Biden win with a chance of around 9 in 10, but do these numbers fully capture the uncertainty in the outcome?

How to be a 10x data scientist

If you are a Data Scientist looking to make it to the next level, then there are many opportunities to up your game and your efficiency to stand out from the others. Some of these recommendations that you can follow are straightforward, and others are rarely followed, but they will all pay back in dividends of time and effectiveness for your career.

Tutorial: Uncertainty estimation with CatBoost

Understanding why your model is uncertain and how to estimate the level of uncertainty. This tutorial post details how to quantify both data and knowledge uncertainty in CatBoost.

The Interplay Between Artificial Intelligence and Uncertainty

we highlight how intelligence and rationality are tightly coupled with the uncertainty present in the world. We also discuss how uncertainty plays a critical role in designing beneficial general-purpose artificial intelligence (AI), as described by the work of Stuart Russel and Peter Norvig on Modern AI [1][2].

Dear self-driving car, how do you deal with uncertainties?

Reinforcement learning optimization under uncertainties. Here I present research with Lucas Vogt, Jan Dohmen and Christoph Friebel.

How to use science to decide when you don’t know what’s going to happen

Making decisions with imprecise probabilities is a risky business. In my research on sensors, machine learning, and collaborative robotics, understanding how to make decisions when you don’t know what is going to happen is something I deal with all the time.

Knowing known unknowns with deep neural networks

Knowing known unknowns with deep neural networks: Defining and quantifying aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in deep neural networks.

How Time Series Analysis Needs To Evolve

Time series analysis is heavily dependent on past data to generate meaningful forecasts. Here’s why this is not always sustainable.

Am I sure or unsure?- Uncertainty talks with a neural network

Analysis of posterior using deep neural networks. One way by which a model can make itself more trustworthy is by telling us how sure or unsure is it of its decision rather than just saying ‘this is my decision’.

Testing is the Vaccine for Uncertainty

Why testing is central to effective data science for business strategy

Data Science Is a Lie

You’ve been deluded all this time. Data Science is all about creating models for prediction (and inventing stories around data, more on that later