This is an article on my EPL Prediction series. You can check out the prediction for previous Game Week and how it held against the actual performance here.

Expected Goals or xG is the parameter used for prediction. If you are interested in understanding the algorithm for prediction, I recommend that you check out this article where it is explained in detail.

Analysis up to Game-week 6

After 6 game weeks, 6 points separates the top 15 teams there are no clear title contenders as of now. The league is highly competitive and there are no unbeaten sides. The only unbeaten sides up to Game-Week 5, Everton and Aston Villa tasted their first defeats in Game Week 6.

Both the Mersey-side teams with 13 points top the points tally. Everton enjoys the top spot on the table, thanks to Goal Difference.

xG Scored and Conceded per match (Image by author)

The defending champions Liverpool is the best attacking team creating more than 2.5 xG per match, no other team manage to create more than 2 xG per game. The Spurs, Leeds, Toffees and the Villans average more than 1.5 xG per game.

On the other side of the spectrum, WestBrom struggles to create goal scoring opportunities with xG around 0.5 per game. To make matters worse, West Brom also has the most porous defence. Wolves and Burnley also struggles to create chances to score but they are able to partially compensate for it with their good defensive capability as indicated by low xG conceded.

Everton, Brighton, West Ham and Southamton possess the best defence conceding around 1 xG per game. Despite their disciplined defensive unit, Brighton has been unlucky in the tournament so far conceding 12 goals averaging 2 goals per game.

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