The experts predicted it. They’ve been trying to alert the rest, but few pay them any mind. It’s now affecting aspects of our lives that we never anticipated: healthcare, education, employment, and even national security. We hear that our lives will never be the same, but how many really believe what they’re being told … or can even understand what’s happening?

Is this another piece about the coronavirus pandemic? Hardly. I’m talking about artificial intelligence: the big AI. Many still discuss AI as prophecy, something “New Age”. Others locate AI in the future, saying “We are on the cusp of colossal changes”.

That’s half right. The changes are colossal, but we passed the cusp nearly 70 years ago.

It’s here

AI’s superficial uses have become commonplace and obvious. Digital assistants, autonomous vehicles, and smart homes clearly use AI, but they’re just gadgets. The meaningful changes are much deeper but harder to see. By one estimate, algorithmic trading already accounted for 90% of equity transactions three years ago, adding up to an annual transaction volume of about $100 trillion under the control of machines. The three largest American cities have been testing and implementing predictive policing programs. Even small-time political radicals have discovered AI’s potential to generate propaganda. These changes are both momentous and largely invisible. While _momentous_and invisible are qualities of well-designed AI, they are a little ominous.

Most people — especially those still largely oblivious to AI — are likely to feel its effects most acutely in the job market. According to one report, up to 14% of the global workforce could be replaced by machines within a decade. That’s just two or three presidential terms from now. The shock to labor will equal the peak of US unemployment during the pandemic, but the AI shock will be permanent, and it is likely to accelerate over time. Dealing with 15% unemployment under current conditions is almost overwhelming. What will we do with 40% irrelevance — a new useless class?

It’s not a crisis. It’s a revolution.

#innovation #venture-capital #technology #investing #artificial-intelligence #artificial intelligence